Many entrepreneurs think that risk is just an “occupational hazard” that can be minimized or eliminated by a smart businessman. That way of thinking is simplistic and wrong. In reality, some risks are good and should be embraced for growth and a competitive edge, while others are bad and should be avoided completely.
Traditional risk management focuses only on bad risks, and seeks to contain losses. But if you want growth and sustainability, you need to embrace strategic risk, which means intentionally taking a risk to grow your business or gain competitive advantage.
In fact, entrepreneurship is all about taking the right strategic risks, while minimizing other risks. Here are some simple examples of “good” strategic risks that you should be working on:
- Deliver an innovative solution to a painful customer problem. This can be high risk if your solution doesn’t work, or your price is more painful than the problem. A bad risk is assuming that you because you like the solution, everyone will buy it, or that you can build an existing solution cheaper than anyone else.
- Plan to replace your product with a better and cheaper one. Probably more companies fail by avoiding this strategic risk than any other. If the current product is making money, it seems like a bad risk to obsolete it. Yet, new technology can quickly blindside you, and market dynamics change, plus you need to broaden your opportunity.
- Build a dynamic product line, rather than a single product. Every new product you add stretches your ability to deliver winning function and quality. Yet a great initial product, with no follow-on, will not keep you ahead of competitors. Take the strategic risk.
- Implement a new business model. Software as a service (SaaS) has now pretty much replaced the old licensing model, but offering it was a strategic risk for SalesForce.com. Proactively implementing new business models, like subscriptions and “freemium” pricing, are good risks, while linearly lowering old product prices is a bad risk.
Partner with a competitor. Use "coopetition" for cost sharing, economies of scale, and to open access to new markets. Once you have established your credibility and value, a strategic partnership may lead to other relationships or a funding source.
- Plan to spend money on marketing. It’s a bad risk to count only on word-of-mouth and viral social network buzz for marketing, as I see in many business plans today. These days, you have to spend money to make money. Of course there is work involved to find the right media, and balance the investment against the return.
- Build your team from the best and brightest. Good people are expensive, and they are hard to find, which adds risk to your startup, but it’s a strategic risk. Lowering the risk by hiring the cheapest, or counting on family members, is a bad risk.
- Count on less funding rather than more. It’s a well-known oxymoron that startups which are over-funded to reduce risk fail more often than under-funded ones. Strategically, the more you can do for less, the stronger you grow. It’s a bad risk to solve problems with money.
- Be aggressive in your forecasts. Every investor has heard from the “conservative” founder who reduces his forecast to lower the risk. These don’t get funded, or they under-perform anyway. Forecasts should be strategic, based on the opportunity and pain level.
- Lead rather than follow. In the old days, the leaders always caught the arrows, so following was less risky. Entrepreneurs who try to reduce risk by following winners, like building another Facebook or another Google, will find that they don’t catch arrows or customers.
The challenge with all strategic risks is that they must be proactive, measured, and managed. If not, they automatically become bad risks. How much of your time is spent on containing the bad risks, versus strategic initiatives. If it’s over 50%, your whole startup is a bad risk.
Marty Zwilling





8 comments:
Great points on risk. Most startups fail (about 80%) due to management failings. Money is everywhere. Many people with money don't know what to do with it anyway. If you can show them how to make their money work for them they will throw all the money they can afford at you.
Your 10 risks are calculated risks. These are the risks that you can place values on such as low, medium, high, etc. There is a difference between calculated risks and non-calculated risks (gambling).
Gambling is a risky business; the kind of risk you don't want to take unless you can throw away what you have invested.
I love #10. So many businesses seem to focus on creating a better mousetrap rather than , um I dont know, changing the procreation habits of the rats. My business offers a unique, maybe early to market solution. Thanks for #10 and for a great post.
Sorry for previous "Test" comment - this morning site didn't receive my comment, so I'll have to type the whole thing again.
I’d dare to argue today some of the points.
#9 It would be worth mentioning, that FaceBook and Google both contradict the point, not affirm it. In the US only there were at least two other search engines at the moment Google arrived: MSN and Yahoo! were quite popular at that moment. Google did NOT invent the new service, they did tweak the technology inside the older service and did pull lots of clientele from “the winners”. When FaceBook appeared on the surface, you had at least MySpace, and it was rather fashionable back then (not to mention LiveJournal).
#3 and #5 are the same (mistake, I guess), and have an issue too. The researchers claim that by trying to broaden their product line, Coca-Cola didn’t really became independent of their mainstream drink – Coke! But the recognition and reputation of their brand was rather compromised.
Look at Microsoft these days. Their product line is not Windows and Office only. But now with the development of really functional SaaS from Google (no need for Office on PC anymore) and these days you don’t have to have OS installed on PC to run it (anything with Browser will do), their revenue could be so impacted, that investors started talking about Microsoftless Era coming soon…
And one more issue about point #3 – I’m yet to see the company, that could really provide best quality with broad range of products offered. When I want a REAL audio, I will not go for Samsung (that can offer me just about anything, from plastic toilet paper to the Hubble Spacecraft), I’ll go for Kenwood, or even better brands that produce audio ONLY!
What you think, Marty?
Victor, sorry for your temporary problem in posting a comment, and thanks for retrying.
On #9, these two may well be among the few who exceeded their forecasts (I don't have the data), but in my view one or two exceptions don't invalidate a rule. I have personally seen too many entrepreneurs preach conservatism, and thus convince investors to look elsewhere.
Every company makes mistakes (like Coca-Cola), but the Microsoft example you give seems to actually prove the point.
On your last issue, I do tend to agree with this one. These specialists keep focused, but they do tend to keep improving their product.
Thanks again for the input.
Marty, I am sorry, I meant #10 instead of #9 (about Google and Facebook)... Sorry.
Victor, first of all let me thank you for pointing out my editing error of including duplicate points. I think that is now corrected.
On your Google and Facebook point, you are right in that they were not the first in these domains, but it least it was still early. Now both of these spaces are crowded, but I still get more proposals for one more social network, or one more search engine, than almost any other. The more crowded the space, the more difficult it is to be a leader rather than a follower. And followers usually don't do well.
Thanks for your answers, Marty!
And yes, new point #5 is a MEGAHIT! I am a leader of the group of businesspeople here in Volgograd, Russia and we have a saying that goes like this "All the competitors out there on the market are there for my benefit!" And it's really true. We have to use coopetition if we want to come into new markets. And if our hearts are right, it is really true that competitors out there on the market HELP me more then they fight me! This could be a topic for one of the new posts, man! :) Thank you!
Thanks for the tips, thanks for the resources. I hadn't heard of many of these but forms are a valuable networking and informational tips for entrepreneurs
Thanks and regards/-
Jason Webb
http://entreper.com
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